Abbotsford International Airshow 2017 Report.
Liz & I travelled west earlier this month to revisit the Abbotsford International Airshow. It had been since 2009 so I needed a bit of a jet noise/exhaust fix. Mr. Jim Reith, who you may recall is not only a good friend and big contributor to my book "Flight Lines" but is an ex Snowbird, ex-Abbotsford Airshow veteran AirBoss and is now President of the whole lash-up. He invited me to be part of the Airshow Flying Events Team (got the shirt) and also be host and Point of Contact (POC) for the US Navy F-18 Super Hornet (aka The Rhino) Tactical Demonstration Team. (got another shirt) It took exactly a tenth of a second to make up my mind and say yes to the invite!
So we two-hopped it to Abbotsford on West Jet and landed in the smokey Fraser Valley on a Wednesday afternoon with the temp in the 30s. Right to work. (well, after a welcome BBQ at the Reith household Wednesday night that is) This airshow is a monster-- a massive and complex project that is literally being planned for the following year before the parking lot is empty for this year's show. Performers, their crews and their demands and challenges, local accomodation for hundreds, rental cars, concession and food stands, vendors, ticket sales, advertising, 700 (!) volunteers to be herded and directed, VIP and sponsored (and catered!) tents on "Chalet Row" where the heavy hitters congregate along the show line to take in the action all to be be set up, staffed and furnished. Feeding and watering of volunteers and performers, parking and traffic control, water supply, sewage and sanitation, radio, communications and the announcers' tower, RCMP aircraft security details and pass control, briefing tents, press releases...it just goes on and on. And bear in mind that this all takes place on the infield, right on the grounds of an active international airport with West Jet and Air Canada in and out several times a day plus unscheduled "scrambles" by Conair, the resident water bombing operation on the field. As you can imagine, this has been a very busy summer for them.
Jim, as President of the whole thing, was the picture of cool throughout as the pressure increased and the thousands of bits and pieces and many moving parts came together for the three day show. If things were going to go off the rails, it was usually on practice day, Thursday. On picking us up at the airport on arrival, I asked Jim how it was all going? Jim calmly replied:
"Oh, the usual. Spent most of today un-f**king things"
I laughed right out loud; "Say, can I use that?"
As part of the Flying Events Team, I had a "Hot Side" pass which allowed unrestricted access to the entire airfield and allowed some great opportunites for up close and personal pictures.
Thursday was practice day as many of the performers and static displays had arrived on the Wednesday. My "Rhino" guys snuck in a practice as the visibility in smoke was just at their limit of 5 NM. Other fast mover shows had to scrub. Below: I'm right on the ramp beside the super hornet flashing up for the Saturday show. Ear defenders highly recommended. Note the haze in the picture from the forest fires, Also note the folding wings and the monster undercarriage. This is a carrier based aircraft. We used to have one of those.
The two pictures above show the Lockheed Martin F-35 on the hot ramp. One monster engine and you could tell by the sound of it on take-off that this is a different airplane. It thumped your chest and rattled your teeth. A very impressive machine with on board wizardry that would astound. Back in my airforce days, copies of a magazine called "Aviation Week" were usually scattered around the squadron ready rooms. We used to call it "Aviation Leak" because we thought, even back in the 70s, if this is the stuff they're publishing, what are they keeping secret?! 40 odd years later, one cannot imagine.
I heard a story from Jim about a competition between the the F-35 and the F-22, two rival contenders for supremacy (and sales!) in the competition for next-gen fighters. It involved setting two F-22s on CAP (Combat Air Patrol) to defend a target from attack by two F-35s. The target was somewhere out on the range in the Nevada desert. So the CAP was set and "Fight's On" was declared. About 45 minutes later, nothing was happening. One of the F-22 pilots called up: "So are you gonna send these guys in or what?" The reply was devastating;
"They've been in and out--twice--and oh, by the way, you're both dead"
This is the same airplane that, according to our government "is not suitable for our needs"
The CF-18 Hornet in the "Canada 150" colours, flown by Captain Matt Kutryk, put on his usual spectacular show. By the way, he has a brother, Joshua, who flew in from Cold Lake in another CF-18 to say hi. Joshua just happens to be Canada's newest astronaut. Hard to compete with THAT family. Pictured below is the Canada 150 Hornet and Captain Joshua Kutryk on arrival at Abbotsford
One of the highlights of the show was a team from the US flying four Harvards. Or they may have been T-6s, the American equivalent. But they sure sounded like Harvards. A wonderful, loud, right in front of you tight formation air show with lots of smoke trails. They were called the Aero Shell team flown by four of the biggest, nicest southern drawl gentlemen I've met. To see the four of them sitting together in the briefing tent, they could've doubled for the front four for the Green Bay Packers. I don't know how some of them fit in the airplane but they put on a terrific show.
Some added pictures:
A great shot of the other "Rhino" in the team that I was hosting.
The F-16 "Viper". Put on a great show but sometimes cut pretty close to the line. This is on my list of "airplanes I'd like in my garage"
The Snowbirds lined up and ready for action, a briefing with the Snowbird Team and the Minister of National Defense on the ramp and me, taken by Tom Watt, who just proved to me that despite my failed attempts, my cell camera works just fine.
The F-15 Eagle came to visit. The didn't fly, they just parked on the static line and partied.
I spent much of the time blasting up and down the show line delivering crew chiefs, personnel and meals in this machine. Great fun! Boys and toys. The crew chiefs of some of the vintage aircraft wanted to be with the Crash-Fire-Rescue Teams on standby on the field in case their "pilot extraction" skills were needed if their bird crashed. Thankfully, they never were required.
Below, Liz and I are waiting for Steve Hinton and his vintage, mint F-86 Sabre to start and taxi for the Heritage Flight Show. You've probably seen Steve in just about any war movie that involves airplanes, including Top Gun. The Heritage Flight is a four ship showcasing four generations of American fighter aircraft; The P-51 Mustang, the F-86 Sabre, the F-16 Fighting Falcon and the F-35. We then ferried his Crew Chief to the other end of the field to be with the fire crews, then back again when Steve finished his majestic and graceful solo show in the Sabre and taxied back to the hot ramp. It is quite possibly the most beautiful jet fighter ever built.
It was six exciting days of travel, jet fumes, ear splitting noise, smoke and spectacle. The after show parties were pretty good too but midnight seems to be coming sooner than I recall. Good news, the Show AirBoss said he wants me back next year. Best of all, our luggage arrived safe and sound both ways!
Until next time, over 'n out.
On seat belts, air pockets, climate change and CAT*
*Clear Air Turbulence
Good grief. Where to start.
Once again, the noble press has jumped the shark. How many times have we heard a breathless passenger in a terminal, (or a personal acquaintance relating their own airline roughest-flight-in-their-life-ever war story) with a local news microphone shoved in their face say something like;
"It was terrible! We hit an air pocket! We must've plunged 500 feet!"
Darn those nasty air pockets. They just come out of nowhere. "Air pockets" are what you get under a diving bell or a capsized canoe on a Camp Gitchee Goomee camping trip. Whoever coined that silly phrase should be given a swift kick and sent to sit in the corner. "Air pockets" are not evil hidden things that airplanes blunder into while flying along minding their own business and then plunge 500 feet, which by the way is approximately the height of a 50 story building.
There was a recent incident where people were injured on a flight that hit some unexpected and unforecast CAT. The potential causes of the CAT were never discussed of course. CAT does occur near high wind shear zones such as jet streams, near frontal boundaries, near mountain ranges or thunderstorms. Always has and always will and if a previous aircraft on the same route misses the rough stuff, or does not bother to report it (very bad form) an unsuspecting follower can bang right into it without any warning. These unfortunates were likely flight attendants, passengers standing in the aisles stretching their legs, waiting in line for the lavs or sitting without their seat belts fastened. Then, a climate "scientist" stated that these incidents "will become more common with climate change" and that this incident was evidence of that. The holes in this statement are truly breathtaking. He is saying, in effect, that if we all turn off our gas BBQs, people will stop hitting their heads on aircraft cabin ceilings. Connecting climate change with CAT injuries is completely fallacious, ignoring the fact that the amount of aircraft in the sky has increased dramatically since the whole climate change thing started thereby increasing the chances of serious CAT encounters. In 2006, the year of Al Gore's acting debut, 2.1 billion people were carried. By 2016, only a decade later, and the latest year that the ICAO has numbers, 3.7 billion passengers flew. The math works out to...um...a very much larger number of airplanes in the sky daily, even if we assume there are, on average, 200 passengers on every aircraft. This "scientist" also ommitted the possibility that the aircraft could've run into the wingtip vortices or jet wash from another in close proximity. This can happen on any airway but occurred often while flying in the North Atlantic Track System (NATS) where aircraft now fly with just 1000 ft. separation. It happened to me over the ocean several times and hits like a hammer out of a clear sky.
Anything to frighten people needlessly about "climate change" these days qualifies as news.
Shame on them.
Speaking of seatbelts, wear them...ALL the time while seated. I noted on a recent flight that my wife (who is about 5'2") while seated, had a distance of less than two feet from the top of her head to the luggage bins above. This dimension changed only slightly when standing in the aisle. Rather than "plunge 500 ft!", all the airplane has to do is drop that short distance at a rate that is less than zero "G" and you, dear friend, are on the ceiling. Going up with sufficient force is dangerous enough but it's the coming down again that usually does the damage. So if you think wearing your seatbelt when the seat belt sign is off is not cool, just ask the bleeding passengers from that CAT incident.
Until next time, over 'n out.
"Got 'em lit yet?"
Another yarn that did not make the book simply because I remembered it too late.
As a rule, people do not like to lose. I know I don't. Even though public figures in business, politics or sports appear to take it well and in good spirits in public, inside they may well be harbouring "thoughts most bloody" concerning those who have bested them in whatever the field of competition. Fighter pilots usually have a highly developed competitive streak, as well they should. Unlike fields like the World Wrestling Federation showbiz machine, where "LOSING IS NOT AN OPTION!" grudge match hype is screamed out over the PA amidst flying folding chairs and steel cages, the loser is still alive. Not so in the fighter pilot world. Losing there really isn't an option in an all out shooting war.
The following story took place in the 70s in Cold Lake Alberta. It shows without doubt that this particular fighter pilot had the killer instinct and trained the way he would fight.
First some background. NATO and western ally fighter pilots have "Fox" code words that they transmit over radio to signify the type of ordinance they have just fired. These codes were used in training and in competitions and most likely in wartime to their controllers unless radio silence was necessary. In my day, "Fox 1" was radar guided missles, "Fox 2" was infra-red or heat seeking, "Fox 3" was unguided "bullets" and "Fox 4" was a mid air collision(!) Guns were, well, guns and as the old saying went "There's no kill like a guns kill". The only one to remember here is "Fox 2", which signified the launch of an air to air missle that depended on the heat of the target's tail pipe to guide it to impact. In short, no heat equals a blind missle shot.
Two instructor pilots in their respective CF-5s went airborne for a little "1-v-1" out in the area. In close formation, the lead called for his winger to break right 90 degrees from their current heading for the split and after a count of maybe 20 seconds or so called "Fight's On!" Without doubt, both lit their burners and pulled for all they were worth to the vertical trying to get an immediate height advantage in the ensuing fight. Well the CF-5 did not have the kind of thrust for that to last long and the resultant (very) low airspeed, high angles of attack and blanked inlets often caused a double engine flame out, a problem that occurred fairly often doing these kinds of violent low speed manouvering in the vertical.
"Double engine failure!...they both flamed out!" barked one of the pilots in some distress.
"OK, fly the airplane..tiger re-light" calmly replied his adversary who had managed to out climb his opponent and had him in sight. A "tiger relight" was simply pulling both throttles back to idle for a couple of seconds and then pushing them full forward. This re-set a bunch of stuff and started an automatic ignition and start sequence. For those not familiar with the CF-5, like most fighters, it had the glide characteristics of a set of car keys, so the clock was ticking and a decision was coming soon.
"OK, doing it now!" gasped the pilot whose breathing was now quite heavy. "I've got rotation...and...ignition!"
"OK be cool. Head back toward the base if you can. Got 'em lit yet?"
"They're both winding up now. Almost back up and running"
"Ya, all good now. Both lit"
"Good. Fox 2. You're dead.See ya back at the Mess"
About the Air Canada A-320 that very nearly landed on a taxiway in San Francisco, I haven' the faintest idea how this could have happened. Having flown to SFO and landed on that runway dozens of times, I don't know of an excuse in the world that could exonerate the crew. Stay tuned. It should be interesting.
Until next time, over 'n out.
MH370: The third and final round.
Welcome back. Here's the rest of the story and I'm sticking to it.
My initial theory had the captain temporarily handing over the flying duties to his F/O sometime between the level off check and the hand off point from Malaysian ATC to Viet Nam ATC. It involved the Captain leaving his seat for a few minutes under the pretext of retrieving some item from his personal luggage stored in the aft spaces of the flight deck. In the dark behind his first officer, he then reached up and pulled the ACARS* circuit breaker. This would’ve triggered a warning followed by a call for a circuit breaker reset procedure and the cancellation of the warning. The Captain, still in place, would’ve then pulled it again. The second time any re-set circuit breaker pops, it is to be left alone for fear of fire etc. So with some slight-of-hand, the Captain surreptitiously disabled the first of several communications systems before returning to his seat and assuming control of the aircraft again. This could be done easily in the B-767—I know exactly where that circuit breaker is—and assumed, incorrectly, that it would be in a similar location in the B-777. After some digging, I discovered that on the B-777 the ACARS could not be shut off from the flight deck, only from the electronics bay located below the floor with the access hatch under the carpet in the forward galley. This made the timing and required actions of the captain nearly impossible and very nearly blew my theory right out of the water.
But I have discovered (with help from AC B-777 instructor Captain Owen Stewart) that the ACARS system cannot be switched off but it can be disabled on the B-777 without leaving the flight deck. Right at the handoff point between Malaysian and Vietnam ATC, the drama begins. Here’s my possible re-creation and it is actually very simple. I recall a BA (British Airways) captain stating that if there ever was a time to steal an airplane, it would be at the international boundary ATC handoff point between two countries.
*ACARS stands for Aircraft Communications Addressing and Reporting System. It is a fully automatic data linked message sent back to the airline operations control with a set of captured flight and engine performance data. The pilots are not involved in these regular automatic transmissions.
Timeline: MH370 Communications. All times local.*
1. 1:07 am: Last received ACARS transmission.
2. 1:19 am: Last verbal communication. “All right, good night” from the aircraft; believed to be the co-pilot (F/O).
3. 1:21 am: Transponder stopped transmitting (turned off or failed).
4. 1:30 am: Civilian (primary) radar lost contact.
5. 1:37 am: Expected ACARS transmission; not received.
6. 2:15 am: Last military primary radar contact.
7. 8:11 am: Last (hourly) satellite handshake.
*aviationist.com MH370 timeline
The points of interest from the timeline above are numbers 1, 2 and 5.
Points 1 and 5 indicate that the ACARS transmits once every thirty minutes. Point 2 shows the last VHF radio transmission occurring eighteen minutes before the next scheduled ACARS transmission.
The hand-off transmission to MH370 is made from Malaysian ATC, giving the crew the new Vietnam Control VHF frequency. The F/O reads it back, Malaysia confirms that it is correct, and the F/O says, “All right, good night,” to the controller. It’s only a courtesy, common on the radio in the air, nothing sinister about it, and it indicates quite clearly that all was well on the flight deck. While the F/O has his head down dialing up the assigned Vietnam control frequency on his radio, he is interrupted by his captain: “Hang on a minute. Could you do me a favour? I’ve got the radios. I’ll check in with Vietnam for you. Take a break. Go back, stretch your legs for a few minutes, flirt with that beauty in the biz class galley, grab us a couple of coffees and a copy of the Malay Times. I like their sudokus and I take my coffee black.” Or whatever chore the captain could think of! The F/O leaves his seat to complete his captain’s errand and the flight deck door closes and locks solid as he exits. The captain is now in complete and sole control of the aircraft and all her systems. From here, it’s a simple matter of either disabling the electronic emergency flight deck entrance system by pulling the appropriate circuit breaker or physically dead-bolting the door. Or both. Either way, no one can enter without a cutting torch—rather scarce gear at the time—and the captain is free to put the rest of his plan in play at his leisure.
First, he turns off the transponder (timeline point 3, just two minutes after the F/O’s transmission) and kills all the aircraft running lights, anti-collision lights, and strobes. Now he’s virtually invisible to both radar and other aircraft.
Second, he turns off all his radios—VHF, HF and SATCOM—as he had nothing further to say to anyone. This act disables the ACARS by denying it the required transmission devices. The anticipated transmission at point 5 above never occurred.
Third, he activates a stored secondary flight plan in the flight management computer (FMC) that he had previously programmed, perhaps from memory, while on the ground in KL. We used to mess with the secondary flight plan feature all the time, even while in flight. You know—important stuff like how many miles it is from Katmandu to Grandma’s house. But mostly we used it to program the route to our alternate airport to cut the workload should a diversion from our destination become necessary. As long as the primary flight plan was active, nothing would happen unless and until you selected and activated the secondary stored flight plan, at which time the autopilot would begin to follow this new flight routing. This, I believe, is when the sharp turns to headings to the west, the southwest, and the south began. I speculate that the routing had something to do with getting away from civilian ATC radar as fast as possible. But I’m guessing, of course.
Fourth, he allegedly climbs to 45,000 feet (FL450). This is debatable, as it was both unnecessary and most likely well above the maximum ceiling of the B-777 at that weight so early in the flight. Perhaps he believed that climbing to such an altitude would make it even more difficult for civilian or military ATC radar to spot him. Passenger mobile phones would also be useless and I have since learned why: cell phone towers are not aimed skyward but angled toward the ground because—wait for it—that’s where the phones are. Quite possibly, no passengers knew of any trouble at that time and had no obvious reasons to call regardless.
Fifth, he reaches up to the cabin pressure controller sub-panel just above his head and starts dumping cabin pressure, rapidly raising the cabin altitude to well above normal.
Sixth, he puts on his own flight deck oxygen mask.
As the cabin altitude climbed above 10,000 feet pressure altitude, the passenger masks would have automatically deployed. These supply just ten to fifteen minutes of oxygen to the passengers, just enough time to allow the flight crew to don their own masks, declare an emergency, and steeply descend to an altitude where it is safe to breathe without them. This descent to safety was never intended and never happened. After twenty or thirty minutes at a pressure altitude of, say, 30,000 feet, it can be assumed that the F/O, flight attendants and passengers, if not already unconscious or incapacitated, were struggling for their lives, using whatever oxygen, portable or otherwise, was available. The passenger oxygen would’ve run out by then. Regardless, the passenger cabin would’ve been chaos until the inevitable. Pleadings by the F/O to be allowed entry to the flight deck were ignored. (Author’s note: As were the dreadful recorded pleadings of the German Wings captain through the flight deck door to his own F/O as that aircraft descended to its doom in the Alps.) Most would finally just go to sleep and succumb to hypoxia even as they tried to contact the captain. He was in no hurry. He had all the oxygen he needed.
As an aside, the time of useful consciousness (TUC) for an average human at a pressure altitude of 35,000 feet is thirty to forty seconds .(The term is time of USEFUL consciousness—you’re still conscious, but you are losing your faculties VERY quickly. You are breathing but the air is NOT entering your bloodstream at that altitude. The next sentence is absolutely correct. After forty-five minutes, most, if not all, on board would be dead.
The seventh and final act: This is where the captain’s basement simulator may have been useful, even though he didn’t really need it. He only needed the B-777 performance charts and the location of the deepest, most remote part of the South Indian Ocean. We’ll never know either way.
When the captain was sure that all were dead or otherwise incapable of any interference, he sets his autopilot to do his bidding. He knew how much fuel he had on board and he knew the location where he wanted the flight to end. So he simply created a way-point using the latitude and longitude of his target, entered it into the FMC, made it the “go to” waypoint (it may have already been pre-loaded) and selected “NAV” on his glare-shield control panel. The autopilot would now take the aircraft directly toward his target. Or he could’ve used “Heading Select.” Setting an aircraft heading of 180 degrees true will point you straight at the world’s geographic South Pole, no matter where you are.
But how could he plan the impact point? This is where the performance charts come in. At a given speed, altitude, and temperature, the aircraft will burn “x” pounds of fuel per hour per engine, which increases if the aircraft is flown at a lower altitude and/or at a higher Mach number. He makes his target the “tanks run dry here” point and works backward. He calculates that, at a certain altitude and speed/power setting, the fuel he has remaining will be exhausted roughly over his target. So he simply sets the desired altitude in the altitude select window, the speed in his speed select window, the rate of descent to the selected altitude, and hands it all to the autopilot. When satisfied that the autopilot is doing as ordered, the captain removes his own mask (or perhaps takes a suicide pill of some kind), and goes to sleep. The aircraft dutifully descends to the chosen altitude (low twenties perhaps?) and flies for hours into the southern reaches of the Indian Ocean at the selected speed, burning up the remaining fuel with no one on board alive.
On the B-777, the cockpit voice recorder is a two-hour self-erasing loop. If ever found, and with recoverable data, the investigators would most likely listen to two hours of engine and flight deck air noise and nothing else. The flight data recorder would be equally useless, revealing only that the aircraft performed beautifully and exactly as programmed until fuel exhaustion and impact.
Many believed that huge pieces would be recovered. How can such a large bit of machinery disappear so completely? I asked myself the same question (similar to when we heard “The towers are gone!” in the van in Denver on 9/11), but it’s easier to imagine the disappearance when one pictures a near vertical B-777 hitting the ocean doing somewhere between 400 and 500 knots. The aircraft would very nearly vapourize from the astronomical impact forces.
Many also believe that when an airplane in level flight runs out of fuel, it will just glide down gracefully and pancake onto the surface. This might happen for airplanes not in autopilot “altitude hold” mode. For an aircraft flying in this mode though, it’s a different story. When the fuel is exhausted, the engines stop—first one, then the other (they never stop at the same time). As long as the electrical and hydraulic power lasts, the autopilot will keep doing what it has been asked to do for as long as it can do it. Even with the temporary asymmetric thrust problem, the autopilot will try to maintain the assigned altitude and track. When both engines quit, the airspeed starts rolling back. Because the autopilot is trying to maintain altitude, it begins to increase the pitch angle (raise the nose) in order to generate the lift required to maintain the selected altitude at a lower airspeed. More pitch equals more drag, causing the airspeed to roll back even faster. I’m willing to bet that, in less than thirty seconds from the second engine quitting, the aircraft had already started its death roll and plunge to the ocean. One wing always stalls before the other. The autopilot by now had thrown up its hands and disconnected—its limits exceeded. With no pilot alive on the flight deck to initiate a stall recovery, that huge machine would’ve rolled on its side as the first wing stalled, its nose falling to near vertical, and gravity would have done the rest, rapidly accelerating it to extremely high speeds, ensuring complete destruction on impact in one of the most remote stretches of ocean on earth. The flaperon found near Africa may have ripped off during the ferocious descent, tumbling and slowing down as to remain intact on impact.
So that’s it. No bloody violence and no conspiracies, on-board or otherwise. A single dead villain and an airplane full of innocent dead passengers and crew that slammed into the Indian Ocean, disintegrating and sinking to the depths. More pieces may be found on various beaches around the Indian Ocean. Investigators may connect some of the dots, but in my humble opinion, this simple but plausible scenario I’ve just presented is the most likely.
Until next time, over ‘n out.
Welcome back. Round Two.
The captain did it. There was simply no one else on board that aircraft with the authority, the opportunity, an array of possible motives, and the knowledge to carry out such a perfect and, for want of a better word, elegant crime. Experienced, competent, trusted—in other words, the perfect villain.
During the aftermath, there was much discussion, mostly by the talking heads on CNN, along the lines of the traditional solidness, accountability, and trustworthiness of pilots, the professionals tasked with the safe handling of approximately 700,000 worldwide daily passengers. If true, how could this pilot do such a thing? they wondered. Aren’t pilots screened regularly for their mental state, etc.? Should this pilot not have been caught beforehand? The short answer is no. Pilots are people, certainly, and while they may act more responsibly then some other professionals in their daily lives, there is a very big reason for this. Let’s face some facts. After all the hours of training, the enormous costs, working your way up from “the minors” to “the Bigs,” being the newbie at the bottom of the seniority list, the simulators, the interviews, the psych tests, and the medicals, when the big bucks finally start to roll in, the vast majority of pro pilots avoid behaving in any manner that would jeopardize what is still viewed as one of the most sought-after professions in the world.
We all know there are exceptions to the rule, to the norm. The captain of MH370, the perpetrator in this theory, was either mentally unstable, seriously troubled by something, or a stone-cold murderer who then took his own life. There was a report that his wife had left him shortly before the flight and unsubstantiated rumours about mistress “issues.” An additional stressor may have concerned politics. Allegedly, the captain was very upset about the conviction and incarceration of the Malaysian opposition party leader, Anwar Ibrahim. The theory involves him calling the Malaysian prime minister using the aircraft satellite (SAT) phone after seizing sole control of the aircraft and demanding Ibrahim’s release (or similar) under threat of deliberately crashing the plane. We’ll never know for sure—one, two, or a combination of the three factors above could have contributed to his motivation. The possibilities are endless.
Whatever his reasons, he also wanted to cover up the crime. My guess is that he wanted to commit suicide while sparing his family the shame and enabling them to collect his life insurance. And unless evidence is found and proven otherwise, murder/suicide must be ruled out. Therefore, any insurance policy remains valid. I posit that this was a careful crafting of a successful crime by a troubled but determined soul.
The simulator in the captain’s basement was, in my opinion, a bit weird. For a newbie pilot, a flying enthusiast, a hobbyist, or a heavy jet-pilot wannabe, I could understand. But for a pilot with his amount of experience? Why? He may have used it to plan this event. But again, we’ll never know.
The flight originated in Kuala Lumpur. In most airlines, the captain will fly the first leg of any new “pairing” or planned sequence of flights with his assigned crew. A “pairing”, at least at my old airline simply meant the “pairing” of a crew with a series of planned flight legs that could span several days. A good one (and tiring!) that I well remember was Toronto-Heathrow, Heathrow-Ottawa, Ottawa-Heathrow, Heathrow-Toronto. It spanned six days and we were whacked when it was over.
The Captain taking the first outbound leg would be especially true at night, to an airport with which his F/O was unfamiliar or with any newbie on the aircraft. Usually, flight legs are flown alternately as a courtesy to both allow the F/O to gain flying experience and to share the load, but the captain can fly every leg of the trip if he wants to. It’s his airplane, and he’s lord and master of all he surveys, consigning his F/O to pulling the gear and flaps, working the radios and keeping the flight logs. By always flying the first leg of a new pairing, the captain sets the tone on the flight deck for how the show will be run. The routine works very well.
The flight departed and climbed on course for the five or six hour flight to Beijing. After the climb to altitude and level off (thirty to forty-five minutes after takeoff depending on weight and local air temperature), the F/O would call ATC to report that they were level at their assigned altitude. The captain would then call for the level-off check, a routine scanning of all the flight deck instrument and control panels done by the PNF (pilot not flying—in this case the F/O), making sure that all was where it should be, that the many sets of altimeters, compasses, airspeed indicators, etc. were set correctly and agreed with one other. They also confirm that the autopilot is doing precisely what it has been ordered to—level flight at a set speed and altitude on a programmed flight routing. All was well, but was about to change in dramatic fashion.
Happy 150th Canada! Have a great weekend. Until next week, over 'n out.
Welcome back. After promising to do this for some time, I've finally started. Below is the first installment in a series covering my theory of the disappearance of MH370. Even though it's now rather old news, the story is still compelling. Enjoy, and feel free to poke holes in it in the comment section. You may find it a challenge!
The Disappearance of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370 (MH370)
Nine-eleven isn’t much of a mystery anymore. A devastating surprise attack on the United States, much death, destruction, and aftershocks to the world in general and the airline industry in particular. It changed everything in that it was the first instance since the Kamikaze pilots in the Pacific theatre of World War II that airplanes were used as manned suicide bombs in a coordinated attack. What follows is a theory about an event that is a lessor tragedy in terms of loss of life but, unlike 9/11, remains a mystery unsolved and unresolved to this day: the disappearance and loss of Malaysian Airlines Flight 370.
It takes the form of an opinion wrapped in speculation with some dramatization thrown in. Nonetheless, my theory remains, as do all others to date, speculation only. Since initially writing this shortly after the disappearance, the German Wings Airline murder-suicide tragedy occurred adding some credence to what follows. Also, a B-777 flaperon has been found, but it has not yet been determined how it separated from the aircraft or whether it is actually from MH370.
The disappearance of this aircraft and the presumptive loss of all souls on board is, in my opinion, the most compelling, tragic, and mysterious aircraft incident in history. Even more so than the famous Emilia Earhart saga because none of our modern tracking wizardry and technology made the grade and the villain (there is one) foiled the most sophisticated search equipment on the planet. If the passengers and crew were murdered in the way I am about to posit, then the security frenzy aftermath of the 9/11 terrorist attacks must shoulder partial blame. Why? It is because of the (obviously flawed) airline flight deck security and access protocols. Whenever there is a team of two individuals who can both do the same task with equal competence, and both have the ability to physically isolate themselves from the other, then these kinds of tragedies are not only possible but they will continue to occur. As mentioned in my book “Flight Lines”, this type of crime cannot occur at El Al (Israel) due to their highly modified aircraft that physically separates passengers and flight attendants from the pilots with no possibility of contact for the duration of the flight. This also eliminates the possibility of (or the need for) one pilot isolating himself from the other as the pilots have their own lav and galley services. There are no lockable doors in their flight “suites” simply because there is no need for them. (But they have to fetch their own coffee!)
First, who did not do it and what did not happen.
All listed passengers and crew on board (and we can provisionally assume their families and extended families) were investigated and exonerated.
All Malaysian airport personnel, Malaysian Airline pilots, flight attendants, and ground personnel who had come within a country mile of the aircraft in the prior month were also investigated and cleared of any wrongdoing.
No groups or organizations—political, religious, criminal, family, rebel, partisan, terrorist, Chinese or Malaysian government rival factions—have claimed responsibility for the incident.
No ransom demand was ever made, ending speculation that the aircraft was hijacked and hidden away at some jungle airstrip.
The first officer was engaged to be married and could afford to do so thanks to his new and more lucrative position on the B-777. Any pilot recently engaged to be married and so new on such a remarkable machine would be excited enough about just doing his job and looking forward to his wedding day and a new life with his future bride. He would not be planning the crime of the century. It was not him.
Flight MH370 did not explode; if it had exploded, large pieces would’ve been found by now.
It did not catch fire; airplanes that have major fires don’t fly on unaffected for six hours and even minor fires cause frightened crews to head for the nearest strip of concrete as fast as they can go.
But, the most telling fact of all was the complete absence of distress calls; neither by radio, nor by data link nor by transponder. This fact is crucial, and quickly narrows the field of possibilities. If there was smoke, a fire, explosion, serious malfunction of any kind, or any attempts to storm the flight deck, any flight crew innocent of wrongdoing or complicity would’ve told somebody—anybody—that they were in distress. Crews and controllers also have transponder codes and plain voice radio code words that can surreptitiously convey duress or high-jacking to their ATC controllers. They didn’t use them because none of the above happened. This was an inside job.
Until next time, over 'n out.
Welcome back. In my first post, I stated that I may comment on this or that or put forward an opinion by way of this journal. Here's one for you.
During my career, I have read some awful news reporting about most things to do with aviation from the MSM. I get that they have to sell papers, that bad/sensational/scandalous news sells, you always hear about the plane crash, never about the successful landings...that never sells papers. As Don Henley famously sang "Give us dirty laundry!" But when "things aviation" reporting gets so sensational (and so wrong) it really annoys me.
Case in point. Just shortly after my first post, there came a breathless news report about some nut bar passenger who had tried to open an aircraft entry door in flight. The report, written by someone who knows nothing about it and probably in all innocence
(or maybe I should say in all ignorance) created vivid readers' "mind's eye" visions of horror as the door would burst open and the bad guy, the struggling flight attendants trying to stop him and the first 4 rows of business class passengers are sucked from their seats to scream and plummet to their deaths into the oceans below. Wow. Pure Hollywood eh? There are enough nervous flyers to go around thank you. This BS only creates more.
Some technical background; Airplanes are pressurized using sophisticated controls so that passengers can travel at high altitudes without the need for oxygen masks. We all know this. The actual process is very simple. Oceans of clean "outside" air are pumped into the aircraft cabin using engine power. This air is conditioned, cooled or heated as required using AC units, heat exchangers etc for passenger comfort. What pressurizes the aircraft is the rate that the air is let out. In other words, cabin pressure is maintained at a certain level by outflow valves (some are as big as man hole covers, the B-747-400 had two if I remember.) that slowly open or close as required to keep the pressure to a programmed schedule for maximum passenger comfort. The point is this. Aircraft doors are called "plug type doors" They do open out on the ground, but before they can do that they must open in. And at seven to nine pounds per square inch typical of a pressurized cabin at altitude, the math works out to about 2500 to 3000 pounds of pressure keeping that door in its place. Arnold himself could not budge it. It's pretty easy to pull an old rubber stopper out of a bathtub drain with a foot of water in it. Imagine the drain is 100 feet under water. Same principle as an airline jet "plug-type" door. Unless the airplane is almost completely depressurized, that door isn't going anywhere without a fight. Relax. Until next time, over n' out.
"Welcome to my very first blog post on the "Flight Lines" website. I'm going to follow my own advice, put the hemming and hawing and hand wringing aside and just start banging away at the key board to see what happens. This is new to me.
I have in mind to use the blog for equal parts story telling, opinion forum, announcement notice board and Q & A platform--and I'm not sure where to start!
Lets start at the last one. I've been out of the flying game for several years now and so I am not current on several fronts. However, the game hasn't changed that much and if my readers have questions they'd like to ask, I would be happy to answer them as best I can. If not, I may be able to direct them to people who are still "in the game" or have bigger brains for stuff like that.
On the opinion front, I intend to start a series on the disappearance of Malaysia Flight 370. Several people have read or heard me speak on the subject and no one yet has been able to find a serious flaw in my theory. But it is, and always will be, just a theory. Stay tuned.
I may also have a thing or two to say about the Twitterverse Twitterstorm Volcanic Eruptions about United Airlines and other airlines all over the news these days. People usually get angry about things they are ignorant of. They are not ignorant, just ignorant of some facts. The fact that social media allows all and sundry to fulminate over a really minor incident not knowing the facts only makes things worse. Relax people, nobody died. "There are three sides to every story; one side, the other side and the truth."
I'll leave you with a story. I flew a B-767 on a routine flight from Toronto to London Heathrow. I was looking forward to the trip because the layover was a longer than usual one but as I recall, it was just one overnight in London. We touched down around 0600 local at Heathrow, were taken to our hotel and weren't scheduled to leave for Toronto until late afternoon on the following day. We arrived at the airport for the return flight, well rested and ready to go to work. I noticed that the airplane had the same fin number as the one I had flown into Heathrow. Then I paged back through the logbook and what I read astounded me. While we were napping, or walking or roller blading around Regent's Park (now banned I might add), meeting for beer call, going out to dinner, sleeping and wandering around the next afternoon before crew pick up, that same airplane had flown back to Toronto, then to Vancouver, then to Beijing, then back to Vancouver, then Toronto, and then to London and was groomed and ready for us! There were a thousand things that could've upset that incredibly ambitious flight schedule and delayed our 200+ passengers. People do not realize or fully appreciate that every time an airplane full of people pushes back on time, it is a minor miracle of planning and execution. Until next time, over 'n out."